methods, notes and classification Fiscal Positions and Business Cycles methods, notes and classification

Fiscal positions and business cycles (FPBC): Annual data

Notes:

1. Introduction

The Fiscal Positions and Business Cycles (FPBC) database contains detailed quantitative information on potential output and output gaps, on NAWRUs (non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment), on actual and cyclically-adjusted government revenues, outlays and balances, and on government financial liabilities (including debt series consistent with the Maastricht criterion) for twenty OECD countries.

Changes Since the last edtions:


The data for the OECD INTERLINK model and for the OECD Economic Outlook aggregates are rebased to 1995

Base-year and SNA/ESA Reporting System Changes

Many countries are changing to the SNA1993/ESA95 for national accounts data. In the present edition, the status is:

…………Expenditure….Household Accounts..Government Accounts.Chain.Base ……………………………………………………………….Year

United States..NIPA tables…….NIPA tables……NIPA tables…….YES..1996 …………(SNA93 from 1959q1)..(SNA93from 1959q1).(SNA93 from 1960q1) Japan……….SNA68………….SNA68…………SNA68………….NO….1990 Germany……..ESA95 from 1991…ESA95 from 1991..ESA95 from 1991…NO….1995 France………ESA95 from 1985…ESA95 from 1992..ESA95 from 1992…NO….1995 Italy……….ESA95 from 1988…ESA79…………ESA95 from 1995…NO….1995 United Kingdom.ESA95………….ESA95 from 1987..ESA95 from 1987…NO….1995 Canada………SNA93 from 1955…SNA93 from 1955..SNA93 from 1955…NO….1992 Australia……SNA93 from 1959…SNA93 from 1959..SNA93 from 1959…YES.1997/98 Austria……..ESA95.from 1995…ESA79…………ESA95.from 1995…NO….1995 Belgium……..ESA95 from 1970…ESA79…………ESA95 from 1980…NO….1995 Denmark……..ESA95 from 1988…ESA95 from 1988..ESA95 from 1988…NO …1995 Finland……..ESA95 from 1988…ESA95 from 1988..ESA95 from 1988…NO….1995 Greece………ESA95 from 1995…Not available….ESA95 from 1995…NO….1995 Ireland……..ESA95 from 1990…ESA95 from 1990..ESA95 from 1990…NO….1995 Netherlands….ESA95 from 1995…ESA95 from 1995..ESA95 from 1995…YES…1995 New Zealand….SNA68………….SNA68…………SNA68………….NO..1991/92 Norway………SNA93 from 1978…SNA93 from 1978..SNA93 from 1978…YES…1990 Portugal…….ESA79………….ESA79…………ESA79………….NO….1990 Spain……….ESA95 from 1995…ESA79…………ESA95 from 1995…NO….1995 Sweden………ESA95 from 1993…ESA95 from 1993..ESA95 from 1993…YES…1995

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:

All data are in level form with the historical annual data starting in 1970 and with the annual projections for 2000 and 2001 consistent with the Economic Outlook No.67, June 2000. Nominal variables are expressed in local currency and in millions .

UNITS: Real (volume) variables are in local currency, in constant price base year and in millions of local currency or USD.

Price variables are given as an index, with 100 in the base year.

Employment variables are in persons or person-years.

Ratios are given as a percentage of the relevant variable.

It should be noted, however, that while an overall framework is presented, not every series will necessarily be available for every country. Starting dates may differ. For example, the country-specific concepts, ZCS001 to ZCS020, are only important for a few countries.

1.1 Output, labour market and capital stock data

Data for gross domestic product are taken from official national accounts published by national statistical authorities. These national accounts are also used to calculate the output of the business sector. Sources and definitions of the labour market data are described in detail in Sources and Methods of the OECD Economic Outlook. The labour market data are not always consistent with the national authorities definitions and those used in the OECD " Labour Force Statistics."

Capital stock data are obtained from national sources whenever possible. For countries without official national estimates, the perpetual inventory method has been applied, estimating capital stock data from available investment data and estimates of service lives.

1.2 Government appropriation account

Data for the general government appropriation account are also taken from official national accounts. In principle, these should be closely aligned with the "System of National Accounts"- System of National Accounts 1993, Commission of the European Communities - Eurostat, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations and World Bank. However, statistical practices in member countries do not always fully comply with SNA guidelines. The treatment adopted by each country is generally documented in the relevant national accounts publication.

1.3 Government debt

Data for government financial assets and liabilities is taken from a range of data sources, as only a minority of countries publish a full sector-by-sector balance sheet as part of their national accounts. For a number of countries data on government assets and liabilities are published separately, by the national statistical office, by the Ministry of Finance or by the Central Bank. These sources may not however, include the full range of financial assets and liabilities. In addition, because they have not been prepared within a consistent framework that reconciles the flows each year with the accumulation of assets and liabilities, there may be significant statistical discrepancies.

For countries which are members of the European Union, debt according to the definition that applies under the Maastricht Treaty have been included. This definition differs from that used for government financial liabilities, in two main respects: under the Maastricht definition, debt is valued at nominal value and trade credits are excluded.

2. Methodology

2.1 Potential output and output gaps

A production function approach is applied to estimate potential output, using a two-factor constant returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function, with employment and capital as production factors. Potential output depends on potential employment, the actual capital stock and trend labour efficiency. Trend labour efficiency is a Hodrick-Prescott filter of actual labour efficiency. Potential employment depends on the trend labour force and the NAWRU, the non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment. Historical data on wages and unemployment are used to estimate the NAWRU. These estimates are adjusted in the light of OECD Secretary country experts with additional country information. (The production function approach is not applied for Portugal. Portuguese potential output is computed as a Hodrick-Prescott filter of total GDP volume.)

The output gap is measured as the percentage difference between actual GDP in constant prices and estimated potential output (for Norway, potential output and the output gaps cover mainland only). The method applied means that the gap does not only depend on the difference between the unemployment rate and the NAWRU but also on the difference between actual and trend labour efficiency, and the difference between actual and trend labour force participation rate.

The method is described in more detail in Economic Outlook No.56, December 1994, as well as in "Potential output, output gaps and structural budget balances" by Claude Giorno, Pete Richardson, Deborah Rosevaere and Paul van den Noord, OECD Economic Studies, No.24,1995/I and in OECD Economics Department working paper No.152, 1995 by the same authors.

2.2 Cyclically-adjusted (structural) government revenues, expenditures and balances


General government revenues and expenditures can be separated into those revenues and expenditures (disbursements) which are affected by cyclical developments — the divergence between actual output and potential output — and those which are of a structural or non-cyclical nature. In most cases, developments in non-cyclical revenues and expenditures reflect policy decisions made by governments and provide an indication of discretionary fiscal policy. But some revenue and expenditure flows may reflect neither cyclical factors nor discretionary fiscal policy, for example, changes in resource revenues due to oil price movements or changes in interest payments due to interest-rate variation. Nevertheless, these movements are included in the structural or non-cyclical part of revenues and expenditures

The structural component of revenues and expenditures are derived by calculating the revenues and expenditures that would pertain if output were at its potential level. The structural levels of revenues (Tti) and expenditures (Gt) that are sensitive to the level of output are derived from actual taxes (Tti) and current primary expenditures (Gt) as follows:

Tti* = Tti(GDPt*/GDPt)ai ai > 0

Gt* = Gt(GDPt*/GDPt)b b < 0

where GDP* is the level of potential output in current prices and GDP is the level of actual output at current prices. The elasticities of different types of taxes with respect to nominal output growth are given by ai and b is the elasticity of current primary expenditure with respect to nominal output. The tax categories which are cyclically adjusted are household direct taxes, business taxes, social security contributions and indirect taxes.

Once the cyclically-adjusted taxes and expenditures have been calculated, non-adjusted items such as interest payments and receipts and capital spending are added to derive total structural revenues, expenditures and net lending. Structural revenues and expenditures are expressed as a percentage of potential output rather than actual output to eliminate changes from year to year that would result from cyclical changes in the denominator if actual GDP were used.

It must be stressed that the estimated structural budget positions are subject to large margins of uncertainty. First, potential output itself is not directly measurable and must be estimated and, second, the estimated elasticities may not always fully capture the relationship between output and tax revenues and expenditures. These elasticities themselves may change over time.

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* OECD STATISTICS                                                              *
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CLASSIFICATION PLAN:
--------------------

STRUCTURE OF THE CODE :   XXX / XXXXXX

SUB-CODES :

    1   XXX......   Country
    2   ...XXXXXX   Indicator



SUB-CODE  1 : Country
-----------
          AUS Australia
          AUT Austria                                                                     
          BEL Belgium                                                                     
          CAN Canada                                                                      
          DNK Denmark                                                                     
          EUR European Community                                                          
          EUW European Community (<=1991)                                                 
          FIN Finland                                                                     
          FRA France                                                                      
          DEU Germany                                                                     
          GRC Greece                                                                      
          IRE Ireland                                                                     
          ITA Italy                                                                       
          JPN Japan                                                                       
          NLD Netherlands                                                                 
          NZL New Zealand                                                                 
          NOR Norway                                                                      
          PRT Portugal                                                                    
          ESP Spain                                                                       
          SWE Sweden                                                                      
          GBR United Kingdom                                                              
          USA United States



SUB-Code  2 : Indicator
-----------
       CAPOG  Net Capital Outlays, Government
       CFKG   Consumption of Fixed Capital, Government
       CG     Government Consumption, Value
       CGAA   Government Consumption, Value (Appropriation Account)
       CGNW   Government Consumption, Excluding Wages
       CGW    Government Consumption, Wages
       CLFS   Ratio of Total Employment National Accounts Basis and Survey
       ECSA   Employment, Country Specific
       EG     Employment, Government
       ELEFF2 Trend Labour Efficiency, Business Sector
       ELEFFU Labour Efficiency, Business Sector
       ETB    Employment, Business
       ETBPT  Employment, Business, Potential
       EXCH   Exchange Rate ($US per local)
       GAP    Output Gap
       GDP    Gross Domestic Product (Market prices), Value
       GDPBV  Gross Domestic Product,Business (Factor Cost) Volume
       GDPCSA Gross Domestic Product, Country specific, Volume
       GDPTR  Potential Output, Total Economy at Current Prices
       GDPV   Gross Domestic Product (Market prices), Volume
       GDPVTR Potential Output, Total Economy, Volume
       GFAR   Ratio of Government Assets to GDP
       GGFL   Gross Government Debt
       GGFLM  Gross Government Debt, Maastricht criterion
       GGFLMQ Gross Government Debt, Maastricht criterion, % GDP
       GGFLQ  Gross Government Debt, % GDP
       GGINTP Gross Government Interest Payments
       GGINTR Gross Government Interest Receipts
       GNFL   Government, Net Financial Liabilities
       GNFLQ  Government, Net Financial Liabilities, % GDP
       GNINTP Net Government Interest Payments
       GNINTQ Net Government Interest Payments, % GDP
       HRS    Average Hours Per Employee
       HRST   Trend-Average Hours Per Employee
       IFU3   Ratio of Actual and Potential Output
       IG     Fixed Investment, Government, Value
       IGAA   Government Investment (Appropriation Account)
       KBV    Capital Stock, Business
       KTRRG  Net Capital Transfers Received by Government
       LF     Labour Force, Total
       LFPR   Labour Force, Participation Ratio
       LFPRS  Labour Force, Participation Ratio, Trend
       LFS    Labour Force, Trend
       NITV   Net Indirect Taxes, Volume
       NLG    Net Lending, Government
       NLGA   Net Lending, Government, Cyclically Adjusted
       NLGM   Net Lending, Government, Maastricht criterion
       NLGMQ  Net Lending, Government, Maastricht criterion, % GDP
       NLGMQA Net Lending, Government, Maastricht criterion, Cyclically Adjusted, % Potential GDP
       NLGQ   Net Lending, Government, % GDP
       NLGQA  Net Lending, Government, Cyclically Adjusted, % Potential GDP
       NLGX   Primary Government Balance
       NLGXA  Primary Government Balance,Cyclically Adjusted
       NLGXQ  Primary Government Balance, % GDP
       NLGXQA Primary Government Balance, Cyclically Adjusted, % Potential GDP
       PCGW   Deflator, Government Consumption of Goods and Services, Wages
       PCP    Deflator, Private Consumption
       PIG    Deflator, Fixed Investment, Government
       POPT   Population, Total (Between 15 & 64 years old)
       PPP    Purchasing Power Parities
       QBVTR  Gross Output, Business, Volume, Trend
       RESTG  Other Capital Transactions, Government
       SAVG   Savings, Government
       SDGDPV Statistical Discrepancy, Real GDP
       SDGNFL Statistical Discrepancy of Government Net Financial Liabilities
       SSPG   Social Benefits Paid by Government
       SSRG   Social Security Contributions Received by Government
       SSRGA  Social Security Contributions Received by Government, Cyclically Adjusted
       TIND   Indirect Taxes
       TINDA  Indirect Taxes, Cyclically Adjusted
       TRPG   Other Current Transfers Paid by Government
       TRRG   Other Current Transfers Received by Government
       TSUB   Subsidies
       TY     Total Direct Taxes
       TYB    Direct Taxes, Business
       TYBA   Direct Taxes, Business, Cyclically Adjusted
       TYH    Direct Taxes, Households
       TYHA   Direct Taxes, Households, Cyclically Adjusted
       UNR    Unemployment Rate
       UNRMIN NAWRU, Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment
       YPEPG  Property Income Paid by Government
       YPEPGX Property Income Paid by Government, Excluding Interest
       YPERG  Property Income Received by Government
       YPERGX Property Income Received by Government, Excluding Interest
       YPG    Current Disbursements, Government
       YPGA   Current Disbursements, Government, Cyclically Adjusted
       YPGQA  Current Disbursements, Government, Cyclically Adjusted, % Potential GDP
       YPGT   Total Disbursements Government
       YPGTQ  Total Disbursements Government, % GDP
       YPGX   Current Disbursements, Government, Excluding Interest
       YPGXA  Current Disbursements, Excluding Interest, Government, Cyclically Adjusted
       YRG    Current Receipts, Government
       YRGQ   Current Receipts, Government, % GDP
       YRGQA  Current Receipts, Government, Cyclically adjusted, % Potential GDP
       YRGA   Current Receipts, Government, Cyclically Adjusted
       YRGX   Current Receipts, Government, Excluding Interest
       ZCS001 Country Specific 1
       ZCS002 Country Specific 2
       ZCS004 Country Specific 4
       ZCS005 Country Specific 5
       ZCS006 Country Specific 6
       ZCS007 Country Specific 7
       ZCS008 Country Specific 8
       ZCS009 Country Specific 9
       ZCS011 Country Specific 11
       ZCS012 Country Specific 12
       ZCS013 Country Specific 13
       ZCS014 Country Specific 14
       ZCS017 Government net lending, Maastricht adjustment, value
       ZCS020 Country Specific 20




Units:
------

All data are in level form with the historical annual data starting in 1970 and
with the annual projections for 2000 and 2001 consistent with the Economic
Outlook No.67, June 2000.

Nominal variables are expressed in local currency and in millions .
Real (volume) variables are in local currency, in constant price base year and
in millions of local currency or USD.
Price variables are given as an index, with 100 in the base year.
Employment variables are in persons or person-years.
Ratios are given as a percentage of the relevant variable.
    • CAPOG Net Capital Outlays, Government
    • CFKG Consumption of Fixed Capital, Government
    • CG Government Consumption, Value
    • CGAA Government Consumption, Value (Appropriation Account)
    • CGNW Government Consumption, Excluding Wages
    • CGW Government Consumption, Wages
    • CLFS Ratio of Total Employment National Accounts Basis and Survey
    • ECSA Employment, Country Specific
    • EG Employment, Government
    • ELEFF2 Trend Labour Efficiency, Business Sector
    • ELEFFU Labour Efficiency, Business Sector
    • ETB Employment, Business
    • ETBPT Employment, Business, Potential
    • EXCH Exchange Rate ($US per local)
    • GAP Output Gap
    • GDP Gross Domestic Product (Market prices), Value
    • GDPBV Gross Domestic Product,Business (Factor Cost) Volume
    • GDPCSA Gross Domestic Product, Country specific, Volume
    • GDPTR Potential Output, Total Economy at Current Prices
    • GDPV Gross Domestic Product (Market prices), Volume
    • GDPVTR Potential Output, Total Economy, Volume
    • GFAR Ratio of Government Assets to GDP
    • GGFL Gross Government Debt
    • GGFLM Gross Government Debt, Maastricht criterion
    • GGFLMQ Gross Government Debt, Maastricht criterion, % GDP
    • GGFLQ Gross Government Debt, % GDP
    • GGINTP Gross Government Interest Payments
    • GGINTR Gross Government Interest Receipts
    • GNFL Government, Net Financial Liabilities
    • GNFLQ Government, Net Financial Liabilities, % GDP
    • GNINTP Net Government Interest Payments
    • GNINTQ Net Government Interest Payments, % GDP
    • HRS Average Hours Per Employee
    • HRST Trend-Average Hours Per Employee
    • IFU3 Ratio of Actual and Potential Output
    • IG Fixed Investment, Government, Value
    • IGAA Government Investment (Appropriation Account)
    • KBV Capital Stock, Business
    • KTRRG Net Capital Transfers Received by Government
    • LF Labour Force, Total
    • LFPR Labour Force, Participation Ratio
    • LFPRS Labour Force, Participation Ratio, Trend
    • LFS Labour Force, Trend
    • NITV Net Indirect Taxes, Volume
    • NLG Net Lending, Government
    • NLGA Net Lending, Government, Cyclically Adjusted
    • NLGM Net Lending, Government, Maastricht criterion
    • NLGMQ Net Lending, Government, Maastricht criterion, % GDP
    • NLGMQA Net Lending, Government, Maastricht criterion, Cyclically Adjusted, % Potential GDP
    • NLGQ Net Lending, Government, % GDP
    • NLGQA Net Lending, Government, Cyclically Adjusted, % Potential GDP
    • NLGX Primary Government Balance
    • NLGXA Primary Government Balance,Cyclically Adjusted
    • NLGXQ Primary Government Balance, % GDP
    • NLGXQA Primary Government Balance, Cyclically Adjusted, % Potential GDP
    • PCGW Deflator, Government Consumption of Goods and Services, Wages
    • PCP Deflator, Private Consumption
    • PIG Deflator, Fixed Investment, Government
    • POPT Population, Total (Between 15 & 64 years old)
    • PPP Purchasing Power Parities
    • QBVTR Gross Output, Business, Volume, Trend
    • RESTG Other Capital Transactions, Government
    • SAVG Savings, Government
    • SDGDPV Statistical Discrepancy, Real GDP
    • SDGNFL Statistical Discrepancy of Government Net Financial Liabilities
    • SSPG Social Benefits Paid by Government
    • SSRG Social Security Contributions Received by Government
    • SSRGA Social Security Contributions Received by Government, Cyclically Adjusted
    • TIND Indirect Taxes
    • TINDA Indirect Taxes, Cyclically Adjusted
    • TRPG Other Current Transfers Paid by Government
    • TRRG Other Current Transfers Received by Government
    • TSUB Subsidies
    • TY Total Direct Taxes
    • TYB Direct Taxes, Business
    • TYBA Direct Taxes, Business, Cyclically Adjusted
    • TYH Direct Taxes, Households
    • TYHA Direct Taxes, Households, Cyclically Adjusted
    • UNR Unemployment Rate
    • UNRMIN NAWRU, Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment
    • YPEPG Property Income Paid by Government
    • YPEPGX Property Income Paid by Government, Excluding Interest
    • YPERG Property Income Received by Government
    • YPERGX Property Income Received by Government, Excluding Interest
    • YPG Current Disbursements, Government
    • YPGA Current Disbursements, Government, Cyclically Adjusted
    • YPGQA Current Disbursements, Government, Cyclically Adjusted, % Potential GDP
    • YPGT Total Disbursements Government
    • YPGTQ Total Disbursements Government, % GDP
    • YPGX Current Disbursements, Government, Excluding Interest
    • YPGXA Current Disbursements, Excluding Interest, Government, Cyclically Adjusted
    • YRG Current Receipts, Government
    • YRGQ Current Receipts, Government, % GDP
    • YRGQA Current Receipts, Government, Cyclically adjusted, % Potential GDP
    • YRGA Current Receipts, Government, Cyclically Adjusted
    • YRGX Current Receipts, Government, Excluding Interest
    • ZCS001 Country Specific 1
    • ZCS002 Country Specific 2
    • ZCS004 Country Specific 4
    • ZCS005 Country Specific 5
    • ZCS006 Country Specific 6
    • ZCS007 Country Specific 7
    • ZCS008 Country Specific 8
    • ZCS009 Country Specific 9
    • ZCS011 Country Specific 11
    • ZCS012 Country Specific 12
    • ZCS013 Country Specific 13
    • ZCS014 Country Specific 14
    • ZCS017 Government net lending, Maastricht adjustment, value
    • ZCS020 Country Specific 20
    • Reporting Country
      • AUS Australia
      • AUT Austria
      • BEL Belgium
      • CAN Canada
      • DNK Denmark
      • EUR European Community
      • EUW European Community (<=1991)
      • FIN Finland
      • FRA France
      • DEU Germany
      • GRC Greece
      • IRE Ireland
      • ITA Italy
      • JPN Japan
      • NLD Netherlands
      • NZL New Zealand
      • NOR Norway
      • PRT Portugal
      • ESP Spain
      • SWE Sweden
      • GBR United Kingdom
      • USA United States